Europe’s politicians, consumers and businesses are understandably focused on how to get through a rough winter. But nobody should kid themselves that the continent’s gas crisis will be over by the spring, writes Hugodixon
The energy squeeze is a multi-year problem which will make Europe poorer and less competitive while saddling the region with higher public debt. Dealing with this at the same time as tackling high inflation will cause ructions which will cascade down the years.
Energy crises have the habit of triggering traumas which play out over many years, as Helen Thompson points out in her“Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century”. Take the Suez Canal crisis of 1956, when Britain, France and Israel aborted their invasion of Egypt following American opposition. This helped convince many European countries to turn to the Soviet Union for supplies of hydrocarbons, the consequences of which we are witnessing today.Or take the Yom Kippur war in 1973.
Of course, other parts of the world have been hurt. Japan relies on liquefied natural gas and developing countries are being priced out of the gas market while facing soaring coal prices. But the United States and China are doing better. America is a big winner because it is filling the hole left by Russia, supplying Europe with shale gas at eye-popping prices.
China doesn’t produce much oil and gas at home. But it is better placed than Europe, says Alastair Syme, Citigroup’s global head of energy research. The People’s Republic has
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Europe energy fallout will cascade down the yearsThe gas crisis is a long-term problem which will make the region poorer and less competitive while saddling it with higher public debt. Dealing with this as well as high inflation will cause further political ructions which will cascade down the years, says Hugo Dixon.
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White House alarm rises over Europe as Putin threatens energy supply
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