A week before it starts, COP26 has already received the last rites. Glasgow’s United Nations climate conference kicks off on Oct. 31 without Chinese leader Xi Jinping or Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, whose countries are jointly responsible for a third of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To avoid the gathering being a complete non-event, attendees need to reset their expectations.
According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the earth can tolerate only another 500 billion tonnes of emissions without risking increasingly damaging atmospheric warming in excess of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Given current annual emissions of 50 billion tonnes, the heavy lifting has to happen this decade.
Unhelpfully, global brotherly love is presently in short supply. There’s the nationalism surrounding Covid-19 vaccination and the current energy crisis. And China and western powers are getting shirty over trade and Taiwan.One way to keep significant 2030 emissions cuts alive is for rich countries to stop being tight.
The fossil fuel belches out 10 billion tonnes of CO2 a year, a fifth of the planet’s total, according to the IEA. China has already pledged to stop supporting new coal plants abroad. That’s good news: The IEA reckons overseas Chinese plants represent over half the 350-plus gigawatts planned globally. But the energy agency says governments have to deal with the world’s 2,100 GW fleet of existing coal-fired plants.
COP26 has all sorts of other strands. Anti-deforestation measures and global accords to phase out internal combustion engines would be welcome. But if China pulls its weight, the private sector’s faith in the transition to green energy may still hold. Ex-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has corralled all the major western financial groups into his Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, whose members have to overhaul their business models to comply with a 1.5 degrees Celsius world.
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