Brazil's real will likely extend its recent uptrend after a crash earlier this year, supported by higher U.S. dollar inflows but held back by a brutal recession that has curbed imports and bloated the budget deficit, a Reuters poll showed.
BUENOS AIRES - Brazil’s real will likely extend its recent uptrend after a crash earlier this year, supported by higher U.S. dollar inflows but held back by a brutal recession that has curbed imports and bloated the budget deficit, a Reuters poll showed.
The real BRBY logged a 4.6% gain in July, its best month since December. This could anticipate a stronger performance in the near future despite several existing risks, particularly the continuing COVID-19 health crisis. “Volatility has subsided but should pick up in Q4 ... because of underlying U.S.-China tensions, U.S. elections and a second COVID-19 wave,” noted analysts at Rabobank, who have raised their forecasts for the real and expect it to trade near 5.25 per dollar by year-end from 5.45 previously.
Since the start of 2020, the real is down 23.4%. Ending December around 5.0 per dollar, as implied in the survey, would mean an annual loss of almost 20%, its weakest year since 2015, when the currency was hit by a local political crisis.
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