Bonds are due to improve, for sure, in 2023—it just might not be the comeback that investors will want
After a record bad year for bonds, investors are facing a big question: What are bonds likely to do this coming year?do worse than 2022. But this is by no means a safe bet. There are a number of factors in the market that suggest bondsIt is easy to see why people think that bonds are due to improve. This year’s bond crash will go down in the history books as an extreme: a 24.8% plummet for long-term U.S. Treasurys through Friday, as judged by Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF .
But this represents a misunderstanding of what regression to the mean actually entails. It doesn’t mean that bonds will necessarily deliver a positive return next year. It instead implies that the second observation in a series—such as a year of market returns—is likely to be closer to the mean, or average, than the prior one, especially when that prior one was extreme.
Prof. McQuarrie’s database shows how this plays out. Consider the years since 1793 in which bonds rose; they rose again the subsequent year 86% of the time. If regression to the mean were dominant, you’d expect this percentage to be higher in a year after bonds fell.
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