BoE Preview: Banks expect 25 bps, door open to further hikes BOE InterestRate GBPUSD Macroeconomics Banks
The “Old Lady” is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%. Red-hot inflation might intensify the chances of a 50 bps interest rate hike, tough.We expect the BoE to raise rates by 25 bps, then again in August and September. Last week’s strong labour market report reduces the likelihood of the Bank doing nothing in June, raises the risk of 50 bps. We would not be surprised to see a three-way split in the voting – two for no change, six for +25 bps and one member for +50 bps.
EUR/GBP is set to move higher on the statement as we expect the BoE communication to fail to live up to market expectations.The BoE has some more wood to chop. We expect another 25 bps hike that will lift the policy rate to 4.75%. This has been our forecast since October 2022. The upside risks to embedded inflation we flagged previously have materialised. We, therefore, add two more 25 bps hikes to our forecasts and now see rates reaching 5.25% this summer.
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