Retailers expect significant gains for Black Friday weekend and the holiday season overall without sharp peaks and valleys in the sales trends.
After going mostly virtual last year, 56 percent of consumers are planning to shop in-store, up from 41 percent last year, according to Deloitte’s holiday survey of 4,315 consumers conducted online by an independent research company between Sept. 7 to 14.
The survey found that 30.6 million people plan to shop either in-store or online on Thanksgiving Day; 108 million will shop on Black Friday; 58.1 million on Small Business Saturday; 31.2 million on Sunday, and 62.8 million on Cyber Monday. The total of the daily numbers exceeds the overall figure because some consumers will shop multiple days.
Gennette said the real question is how big of a “lull” in shopping occurs after Cyber Monday. Historically, retailers typically saw a huge lull in shopping after Cyber Monday until about 10 days before Christmas when business would rebound. Yet with the earlier holiday shopping of the past two years, the pattern has flattened out.
Specifically for the Black Friday weekend, several factors work in favor of retailers. Temperatures are dropping, which will perk up seasonal purchases. Many stores, Target, Kohl’s and Macy’s among them, will stay closed Thanksgiving Day for the second year in a row. That pushes business to Black Friday. For about a decade prior to COVID-19, retailers were keeping their stores open on Thanksgiving, dragging Black Friday down.
“On a national level, sales in seasonal categories are going to be up because it will be cold in the large metropolitan centers, including New York and Chicago,” said Evan Gold, Planalytics executive vice president. While there will be rainfall and precipitation, it is not expected to be traffic limiting. Last year, the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend was the warmest and driest since 2017, according to Planalytics.
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