Law of averages could catch up with explorers, as typical success rate for a series of offshore wells is around a third
Those arguing that higher oil prices are ahead often point in evidence to a chronic lack of investment in oil exploration of late. Without sufficient capital put into large, offshore projects, crude supply will wither, they say. In fact, there have been very large oil discoveries including in the Norwegian North Sea, offshore Guyana and, most recently, offshore Namibia.
Investors in Sintana, with a C$122mn market value, have done well. Its share price has more than tripled over the past year. Of course, the law of averages could soon catch up with these explorers. The typical success rate for a series of offshore wells such as these is around a third. Such a high hit rate might mean that this Orange basin in Namibia could be highly prolific. But history suggests this kind of success rate will tail off in the next couple of years. These wells cannot be cheap.
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