The updated advisory by the U.S. Climate Prediction Network showed there is a 95% chance that El Niño conditions will extend through this winter into March.
The center, operated under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, states that there is now a 71% of a “strong” El Niño, up from the 56% chance it predicted earlier this year.
In California, El Niño events generally cause wetter conditions in the south and drier conditions to the north, but that is not always what plays out. There have been 26 El Niño events in California since 1951, of which 11 were classified as “weak,” seven as “moderate,” five as “strong” and three as “very strong,” according to Jan Null, a meteorologist at Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay.
The last El Niño event was in 2018-2019. Marin County was hit by significant rainfall that caused flooding and damage, including a large mudslide in Sausalito that destroyed two buildings and injured a resident. The Marin Municipal Water District measured nearly 75 inches at Lake Lagunitas that year, above its average of 52 inches. That event was classified to be a “weak” El Niño.
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