Subscribers: Bank economists say U.S. heading toward 'soft landing,' may avoid recession with inflation easing
The White House and the Federal Reserve are grappling with how to deal with inflation.A new forecast from bank economists predicts that the U.S. will avoid a recession over the next two and a half years even as economic growth slows and inflation eases, with the Federal Reserve successfully maneuvering toward a "soft landing."
However, interest rates will remain lofty, and gasoline prices could push a bit higher, according to the report.metro Phoenix led large cities with an 11% inflation rate Recessions typically are defined as two straight quarters of negative growth, and real Gross Domestic Product slipped 1.5% in the first quarter. Recession determinations are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, often many months later.
"Moreover, 2019, 2020 and 2021 were the highest three years on record for gains in inflation-adjusted wealth per household, which will provide a strong tailwind for the consumer economy," he added.President Joe Biden said he does not believe an economic recession is inevitable in the U.S. Biden, in Tokyo, acknowledged the U.S. economy has “problems” but said they were"less consequential than the rest of the world has.
The nation's unemployment rate will remain consistently at around 3.5% over the next year and a half. That implies a scenario in which job seekers will enjoy many opportunities. Arizona's jobless rate is a bit lower, at 3.2% “It looks like the Federal Reserve will successfully bring inflation down to more tolerable levels in the foreseeable future,” DeKaser said.Still, the economists acknowledged that the Fed could overshoot and usher in a recession. The group sees a 40% chance of a recession in 2023, without providing odds for other years.
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