The AUD/USD pair finds some support in the vicinity of mid-0.6300s for the second straight day and stages a modest recovery from a fresh low since Nov
ember 2022 touched this Wednesday. Spot prices, however, struggle to capitalize on the move and remain below the 0.6400 round-figure mark through the early European session.
The US Dollar takes a brief pause and digests the recent rise to a six-month peak, which, along with the better-than-expected release of the Australian GDP report, prompts some intraday short-covering around the AUD/USD pair. In fact, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy expanded by 0.4% during the April-June period, a touch higher than the 0.3% rise anticipated and the 0.2% growth registered in the previous quarter.
The AUD/USD pair, however, lacks bullish conviction amid concerns about the worsening economic conditions in China. Apart from this, persistent US-China trade tensions keep a lid on the China-proxy Australian Dollar . In the latest development, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said that she doesn't expect any changes to the US tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration until the completion of the ongoing review by the US Treasury.
It is worth recalling that the Australian central bank decided to stick to its wait-and-see stance and left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10% for the third straight month on Tuesday. Furthermore, the accompanying monetary policy statement offered little hawkish surprise and fueled speculations that thepolicy tightening cycle is over. In contrast, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of one more 25 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2023.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, along with the overnight breakdown through the bearish flag pattern, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. Traders now look to the release of the US ISM Services PMI, due later during the early North American session.
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