AUD/USD consolidates close to 0.7200 ahead of US data as bears eye test of 0.7100 support By Frank_Macro AUDUSD Technical Analysis
ay and is pivoting either side of the 0.7200 level. Market commentators are citing strength in China coal prices , as well as a positive Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI survey, which was better than expected at 50.9 in December versus 50.0 forecasts, as supportive of the. More broadly, ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 from 52.3 in November, indicate of broad economic strength in the region. With AUD/USD up 0.1% at current levels close to 0.
However, aside from a big drop in the yen to multi-year lows versus the US dollar amid catch up to the recent move higher in US yields), FX markets are tame on Tuesday. Currency traders are awaiting US ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data at 1500GMT, ahead of the release of the ISM services PMI and official labour market report later in the week. Note that the Australian manufacturing PMI for December was also released during Asia Pacific hours, with the headline index easing to 57.
IHS Markit said that “Some growth momentum was lost for the Australian manufacturing sector in December as the reopening boost faded and supply constraints hampered production according to panellists”. “That said,” the report continued, “current growth momentum remains strong by historical standards and firms have maintained an optimistic view with regards to future output”.
With AUD/USD having recently broken to the south of a short-term bullish trend channel, the scope for further technically driven losses is high. Short-term bears may way target a test of mid-December lows in the 0.7100 area, should the 0.7200 level go. From a technical/quantitive perspective, there is plenty of room for selling pressure to build; the 14-day Relative Strength Index is at a comfortable 49, well above the “oversold” 30 level.
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