Recently struggling cyclical groups firmed up. The small-cap Russell 2000 bounced to avert a potentially messy chart breakdown
, and regional-bank stocks are now more than 10% above their recent fear-saturated lows. This modest improvement in the non-Big Tech expanses of the market seemed based on the macro and policy paths simply not worsening quickly enough for investors to cut equity exposures even further than current muted levels. The framework for a debt ceiling deal is visible even if the negotiators have incentives to make it seem a longshot until the moment of agreement.
But it's also absolutely the case that, aside from Nvidia, the Big Tech bellwethers traded at more expensive valuations 18 months ago, before anyone had heard about ChatGPT. Whatever the merits of the AI story and granting that the stocks are again trading for stout valuations, the Nasdaq-100 reaching its new 52-week high in 18 months last week is not among the weaknesses in the bullish case.
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