There may be a precedent for the hole that policy makers find themselves in when the dust has settled: Japan.
There aren’t many precedents for the trauma that financial markets have suffered last week, as the coronavirus crisis drove U.S. stocks into a bear market and briefly sent yields on every Treasury bond crashing below 1%.
“We’re essentially at the Japanese place,” former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “That’s a place that’s very hard to get out of.”Conditions that don’t feature much in economics textbooks have been the norm in Japan for decades. Benchmark interest rates have been near zero or below, yet households and businesses still don’t want to borrow, leaving traditional monetary policy without traction.
“Central banks have lost the plot,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis and a former European Central Bank staffer. “Somebody else needs to step up.” “From a big picture perspective,” Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note Thursday, the virus shock “has once again brought the structural issues of debt, demographics and disinflation to the fore.”
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