America’s shelter inflation could climb to 4-6% by the end of 2022
, making up 32% of the basket of goods and services used to construct the index. The component is broken into two main buckets: regular rents paid by tenants, and the imputed cost of living in owned homes. Although house prices rose by 20% in the year to July, they do not feed directly into the. That is because statisticians treat home purchases as investment rather than consumption.
For much of the pandemic both rents and shelter inflation were depressed. But there are two reasons to think the latest pickup in shelter costs will continue. The first is the expiry of the government’s eviction moratorium. The policy had helped renters stay in their homes in 2020, even as lockdowns meant some were unable to work. Many tenants also negotiated lower rents during that time.
The second reason why shelter inflation might rise further is that market prices feed through to the inflation figures only slowly. Landlords tend to charge more rent when the value of their property goes up, but with a lag. Rises in new rents also take time to appear in consumer prices, because leases tend to last a year, and thesamples rents only every six months or so.
A timely measure of rents, published by Zillow, a property site, is up by around 10% on the year. Further rises could follow as more new leases are signed. Laura Rosner-Warburton of Macro Policy Perspectives, a research firm, expects shelter inflation to climb to 4-6% by the end of 2022. That would contribute 1.3-1.9 percentage points to headline inflation, twice its average contribution in the decade before the pandemic. The next inflationary force could be home-grown.
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