Analysis: Why Russia’s mobilization may lower the risk of nuclear war — for now
Even as it seems to ratchet down the short-term likelihood of nuclear use, Putin’s mobilization signals an unflinching commitment to his larger goals in Ukraine — and it may portend a willingness to embrace other nasty means of achieving them.
This reality means Putin will probably continue to search for some other way to end this conflict on terms that he can call a victory. And despite the barbarity of Russia’s campaign, there are, in fact, a number of forms of nonnuclear escalation from which Russia has so far largely refrained — probably in no small part due to Putin’s own concerns about provoking escalation versus NATO.
Of most concern, Putin could order conventional military attacks on the NATO supply lines into Ukraine — either on the territory of front-line NATO states or at various depots in western Ukraine. These are all fixed locations well known to the Russians and would not require a great deal of skill to target.
For that reason, it is notable that Putin’s speech also set the stage for Russia to annex Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, which Russia would then consider official Russian territory. Whether Ukrainian attempts to take back that territory would then be considered attacks on Russia itself remains an open question, but one that could play an important role in Putin’s future political justifications for escalation in ways not yet seen in this war.
Caitlin Talmadge is associate professor of security studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. She is the author of “The Dictator’s Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes” .Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization” of troops in an address to the nation on Sept. 21, framing the move as an attempt to defend Russian sovereignty against a West that seeks to use Ukraine as a tool to “divide and destroy Russia.
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