Analysis-U.S. growth, a puzzle to policymakers, could pose global risks
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming - U.S. economic growth, still racing at a potentially inflationary pace as other key parts of the world slow, could pose global risks if it forces Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates higher than currently expected.
While U.S. inflation has fallen and policymakers largely agree they are nearing the end of rate hikes, economic growth has remained unexpectedly strong, something Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in remarks on Friday could potentially lead progress on inflation to stall and trigger a central bank response.
After the pandemic shock and the inflationary rebound that had most countries raising rates together, it's normal now for policies to diverge, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of the Jackson Hole conference on Saturday."The economy is a global economy, right? It's an interconnected economy," Mester said.
Some point to weakening in manufacturing, slowing consumer spending, and tightening credit, all consistent with the impact of strict monetary policy and cooling price pressures. Quizzed about the divergence after a speech here, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, the outlook was for a euro-area recession, and a potentially deep one in parts of it.
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