The fate of an early year rally in stocks may depend on whether equities can withstand a recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields, as investors increasingly come around to the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra on interest rates.
Some investors worry, however, that a continued repricing of rate expectations could weigh on equities in coming weeks, after a rally that has seen the S&P 500 gain 8.5% year-to-date and the Nasdaq CompositeFalling yields have “definitely been a key support for the market and if we lose that, that will be a trigger for volatility,” said Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist at Edward Jones. "We don’t think that rally is built on sand ...
The equity risk premium, or extra return investors expect to receive for holding stocks over risk-free government bonds, has become less favorable over the past week, according to data on Tuesday ahead of Powell's comments from Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. Futures markets on Tuesday were pricing in a peak Fed funds rate of 5.12% in June or July, falling to about 4.8% by December. Prior to last Friday's employment report, they had expected the Fed funds rate to peak at 4.88% in June.Following Powell's comments, investors are shifting focus to economic data, with two consumer price index reports -- including one due next Tuesday -- and another jobs report expected before the next Fed meeting.
Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.
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