Ukraine's armed forces are heavily outnumbered and outgunned by Russia's but could put up a level of resistance that would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to pay a price of many thousands of Russian lives for any new invasion.
Western military analysts say Ukraine's army is better trained and equipped than in 2014, when Russia captured the Crimean peninsula without a fight, and highly motivated to defend the country's heartland.
A plausible alternative, he and others said, was that Russia might push south and west from Ukraine's Donbass region - already controlled by pro-Russian forces - to link up with annexed Crimea and the Black Sea. But even that more limited objective would entail high Russian casualties. "Yes it can defeat, say, the high level of Ukrainian forces, but try to invade a country like Ukraine with a population that is clearly against you, which is armed to the teeth, where most males have at least rudimentary military training that they can still remember. You're going into an area which is Chechnya multiplied by 10, or Georgia multiplied by 30," he said.
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