Two provocative incidents in Stockholm this month have energised Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan ahead of tight elections and dimmed Sweden and Finland's hopes of joining NATO before the summer, diplomats, analysts and opposition politicians say.
All 30 NATO member states must approve newcomers.
Ozer Sencar, chairman of pollster Metropoll, said that amplifying foreign policy and security issues ahead of elections allows Erdogan to consolidate his voter base. "Of course they feel the pressure from the upcoming elections in mid-May and because of that the discussion understandably has become heated in many ways in Turkey," Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told Reuters.
While Erdogan's government backs the Nordics' NATO bid with conditions, his political opponents had been more supportive - before the Stockholm incidents.His AK Party, now the biggest, is likely to remain a powerful force in parliament after the elections, but opinion polls show Erdogan trailing some potential presidential challengers including CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and the popular mayors of Istanbul and Ankara.
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