The past year's consistently robust hiring gains have also defied the fastest increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate in four decades.
coincided with an actual slowdown in wage growth. And it followed an easing of numerous inflation measures in recent months.fastest increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate
“Today’s jobs report is almost too good to be true,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Like $20 bills on the sidewalk and free lunches, falling inflation paired with falling unemployment is the stuff of economics fiction.”a job market with strong hiring and a low unemployment rate Those trends have raised questions about a core aspect of the Fed's higher rate policy. Chair Jerome Powell has said that conquering inflationAnd the Fed's policymakers have forecast that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.6% by the end of this year. In the past, an increase that large in the jobless rate has occurred only during recessions.
That said, it's possible that Friday's report could still nudge the Fed in the opposite direction: The consistently strong job growth might convince Powell and other officials that, despite signs that wage growth is slowing, a powerful job market will inevitably reignite inflation. If so, their benchmark rate would have to stay high to cool the pace of hiring.
“There are a lot of norms .... that aren’t normal anymore," Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said Friday."We’re seeing a lot of companies maybe not doing layoffs in January that they normally would have because they went through a pandemic where they lost people and they didn’t come back.’’ “My own view," the Fed chair said,"would be that you’re not going to have a sustainable return to 2% inflation in that sector without a better balance in the labor market."
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