After a decade of reducing its military presence, America is now deploying forces in the Middle East to deter attacks on American interests and Israel. However, the possibility of deterrence failing raises concerns about potential consequences, including attacks on American soldiers and shipping in the Persian Gulf. The question remains whether America could be dragged into a deeper Middle East war, a scenario its leaders hoped to avoid after the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.
TO PARAPHRASE AN observation attributed to Leon Trotsky, you may not be interested in the Middle East but the Middle East is interested in you. After a decade of tapering down its military presence in the region, America is back with a huge display of force. In the past few days two fighter squadrons have flown in. They follow the deployment of two aircraft-carrier strike groups, multiple air-defence systems and much aid to Israel. More units have been told to prepare to deploy.
There is already one example: On October 19th a navy destroyer intercepted missiles fired from Yemen, apparently by Iran-backed Houthi rebels targeting Israel. The Pentagon revealed at a press conference on October 24th that it has assessed these missiles as having ranges in excess of 2,000km. America is already augmenting Israel’s Iron Dome air-defence system, which faces the threat of between 130,000 and 150,000 Hizbullah rockets and missiles.
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