India's wheat output looks likely to fall in 2022 after five consecutive years of record harvests, as a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures in mid-March cut crop yields in the world's second-biggest producer of the grain.
The drop could curb Indian exports of the staple. Cashing in on a rally in global wheat prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, India exported a record 7.85 million tonnes in the fiscal year to March - up 275% from the previous year.
The government is yet to formally revise its production estimates, but an official note, seen by Reuters, said the output could fall to 105 million tonnes this year. In 2022, India recorded its warmest March in 122 years with the maximum temperature across the country rising to 33.1 degrees Celsius, nearly 1.86 degrees above normal, according to data compiled by the state-run India Meteorological Department.
"Based on the production estimates issued by the government in February, we could have easily exported much more than 12 million tonnes, but it now looks like we'll be exporting around 10 million tonnes," he said.
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