A US recession in 2023 would see the Dollar fall further than anyone expects – SocGen DollarIndex UnitedStates Growth Banks
“I have plotted the 6-month change in the Leading Index against quarterly GDP since the late 1970s. The 6-month change in the index, at -4.4, is clearly in territory that in the past has preceded the economy slipping into recession at some point in the next two or three quarters.”
“The Dollar has risen a long way since 2008 as the US economy has outperformed Europe, and while currency markets are all about relative growth, relative monetary policy and other relative measures, a US recession in 2023 would see the Dollar fall further than anyone expects, particularly if Santa Claus were to find a way to give us peace on earth at some point next year.”Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
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