Emmanuel Macron told diplomats that 'Europe will disappear' if it fails to thaw relations with Moscow
as well have drafted the script of Donald Trump’s leaked call to Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25th. In it, Ukraine’s president endorsed criticism of his European partners and seemed open to a deal by which his country would disclose information damaging to Joe Biden, a possible electoral rival to Mr Trump, in return for aid in its struggle against Russia’s military incursions. The transcript reinforced Moscow’s lie that Ukraine is a decadent Western satrapy.
Friends of Ukraine need not worry too much about the call. Plenty of European leaders, after all, humour Mr Trump on the phone. But Ukrainians and their allies ought to worry about something else. A partial thaw in-Russia relations, produced not by the ramblings of an inexperienced Ukrainian president but by long-term geopolitical shifts, is under way.On paper, that seems improbable.
One shift is that the transatlantic relationship is faltering. Europe and America no longer feel they can rely on each other to the extent that they could in the past. Mr Trump has proved an unreliable ally, which is perhaps why more and more Europeans talk about the need for “strategic autonomy”. Any such thing is a long way off.
Another driver is the rise of China. Europeans fear that China and Russia are edging towards the formation of a new bloc that will dominate Eurasia. Mr Macron’s pivot to Russia is in part intended to stop it from slipping into China’s grasp. It is better, he argues, to make some concessions to solve the Ukraine issue and restart relations with Moscow than to let the world’s largest country by land mass fall into Beijing’s orbit.
A widening Atlantic, a rising China and crisis in the Middle East are pushing Europe and Russia together. This may be understandable, but it is also very risky. The countries wedged between western Europe and Russia—from Poland to the Caucasus—are understandably alarmed by hints of a thaw.
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