A strong first 100 days suggests a strong rest of the year for the S&P 500
According to the bank's research, when the S&P 500 is up 10%+ in the first 100 days, the rest of the year is strong: up 76% of the time on an average return of 7.1% .
"This equates to SPX 5640 to 5750 into yearend 2024," adds the firm."The average and median rest of year returns for all years going back to 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, point to SPX 5530 to 5650 into yearend." "When the SPX trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year tends to be strong with the index up 93% on an average return of 10.1% and a median return of 8.9% ," they explain."Rest year returns for all election years show the SPX up 88% of the time on average and median returns of 8.8% and 8.5% , respectively.
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