One of the drivers of Amazonian droughts may soon kick off, potentially piling yet more stress on an ecosystem already ravaged by the deforestation and fires caused by human meddling.
What’s abundantly clear right now is that climate change is driving temperatures ever higher and generally making droughts more frequent and intense. That creates unprecedented peril for the Amazon. “Deforestation is increasing, fires are increasing, and in general degradation of the forest is increasing,” says Jiménez-Muñoz. “Every future El Niño will occur in a global warming scenario, but also in a scenario where the Amazon forest is more degraded.
“They may be able to deal with a three-month, four-month, even five-month dry season. But then increase it by three weeks or a month or two months, and you may be in trouble,” says Paulo Brando, a tropical ecologist at Yale University and Brazil’s Amazon Environmental Research Institute. “If plants are water-stressed, there is a greater chance that they’re going to drop their leaves and twigs to survive the drought. And that increases forest vulnerability.
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