The economy might be improving by Election Day, but job losses will still be devastating.
President Trump hopes for a sharp rebound in the economy by fall, as the coronavirus outbreak eases and some Americans go back to work. But the economic damage in several swing states crucial to the 2020 presidential race will still be devastating on Election Day, and beyond.
IHS doesn’t think employment levels will recover to pre-virus levels until 2024. Improvements will be gradual, starting later this year, but by the time of the election in November, voters could feel pretty sour. “It will feel better than it feels now,” says IHS economist Karl Kuykendall, “but we’re not going to be at the point where people feel confident about the economy. The virus risks will still be out there.
Trump’s marks for his handling of the coronavirus crisis have fallen since early April, with 43% now approving and 54% disapproving. The votes that matter most will be those in 6 to 10 swing states that are closely divided, including those mentioned above, plus Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin and perhaps even Texas. Biden leads Trump in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and his margin over Trump has improved since mid-April.
Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than one percentage point in 2016, and Florida by about 1.2 points. So small swings in favor of Biden this time around could cost Trump the election. If Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, plus all the states Clinton won in 2016, he’ll become the next president.
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