The Trump administration's latest COVID-19 projections rely on a model that appears to count on several important assumptions. Here's what they are — and why they matter. 👇
President Trump and his top scientific advisers on the coronavirus task force gave a much-anticipated presentation Tuesday night, laying out the data behind the president's recent shift in tone regarding the outbreak, including his decision to extend national social distancing guidelines through April 30.released weeks earlier by Imperial College London that, at the time, predicted that if no action were taken to slow the spread of the virus, about 2.
Although officials implied that this estimate was based on the administration's own in-house modeling, they did not provide further details about those calculations. Instead, officials discussed– the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME — which produced projections very similar to the administration's findings, according to Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the coronavirus task force.
IHME's modelers say they did not take into account the impact of the president's social distancing guidelines — first unveiled on March 16 IHME's model assumes that seven days from now, all states that haven't already done so will impose the full range of social distancing rules statewide.By contrast, Trump's presidential guidelines only apply through April 30. The president has indicated that he may extend that date as the situation warrants.
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