The odds of winning are staggering.
Not to discourage anyone, because the only constant is if you don’t play you have no shot, but here are some scenarios that are about the same as winning the Powerball according to Montgomery:
Suppose you fill out your March Madness bracket as follows: You pencil in all the #1 seeds over the #16 seeds, and then you flip coins for every other pick in the first round. Winning the Powerball jackpot is a bit less likely than getting all 32 of the first round games perfectly right in this way . Although, that assumes all the #1 seeds actually win. I’m looking at you, Virginia.
A plane flying over Lake Erie drops a gold brick somewhere in the lake. You decide to look for the brick, but you have no idea where it is, so you pick a random 50 foot by 50 foot section of the lake bottom to investigate. Winning the Powerball jackpot is somewhat less likely than finding the gold brick in this way .
If someone asks you for your license plate number, but you don’t have it available, you could make a guess by choosing one license plate randomly from the entire U.S. database of registered vehicles. Winning the Powerball jackpot is about as likely as getting your own license plate in this way .
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