3 things I learned in the last speculative bubble that explain why I'm not going hog wild in this one…
Many market gurus believe we're in the middle of one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history. I think they're right. But I'm not betting the farm on it.
I had assumed that, somewhere, there were some investors who were so smart and well-informed that they knew what was going to happen.Some investors' guesses are more sophisticated and better informed and reasoned than others, but they're still guesses. No one actually knows.It matters because it's important to remind yourself that your favorite market gurus don't know what will happen. Not George Soros. Not Warren Buffett. Not Ray Dalio.
By early 2000, things had been crazy for years, and, despite the occasional dip, they had just kept getting crazier. So even in March 2000, when the Nasdaq fell by a third in three weeks, most of us didn't know we had passed"the top."
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