Crude Oil Price Tests 50-Day EMA
It is worth noting that we have found a bit of support underneath, near the 50-day EMA. This is a highly technical market, so it should not be a huge surprise to think that perhaps value hunters were waiting near the technical indicator.We have dropped almost $40 a barrel over the last six or seven trading sessions, so clearly, we have gone from outrageously overbought to now being outrageously oversold.
Perhaps the most important aspect will be whether or not we enter a recession globally. If that is going to be the case,most certainly will have to come down in price. In fact, a lot of people will point to the fact that when oil gets expensive, that in and of itself can cause a recession. In other words, oil accelerated far too fast to hang on to the gains. This is not to say that we cannot go higher from here, and in fact, I think we probably will.
If we do break down below the 50-day EMA, then it is possible we could go looking towards the $90 level next, which was an area of support recently. On the upside, if we can clear the $100 level again to the upside, then it could bring on more of an uptrend. I think that is probably going to happen given enough time, but we will have to see how much damage has to be done to the market before people are willing to come in and pick it up based on value.
I do not necessarily think that oil is going to be easy to trade due to the fact that the OVX, the Oil Volatility Index, is still well above norms, meaning that volatility is still an issue.
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