One year after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and caused widespread suffering, the global economy is still enduring the consequences.
A worker serves customers at a food stall in Bekasi, on the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia, Feb 2, 2023.
In the United States and other wealthy countries, a painful surge in consumer prices, fueled in part by the war’s effect on oil prices, has steadily eased. It’s buoyed hopes that U.S. Federal Reserve inflation fighters will relent on interest rate increases that have threatened to tip the world’s biggest economy into recession and sent other currencies tumbling against the dollar.
Still, in ways big and small, the war is causing pain. In Europe, for example, natural gas prices are still three times what they were before Russia started massing troops on Ukraine’s border. Punishingly high food prices are inflicting particular hardship on the poor. The war has disrupted wheat, barley and cooking oil from Ukraine and Russia, major global suppliers for Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia where many struggle with food insecurity. Russia also was the top supplier of fertilizer.
“People have huge decisions to make,” said Alexander Verhes, who runs Life Flour Mill Limited in the southern Delta state. “What food do they buy? Do they spend it on food? Schooling? Medication?”At least 40% of bakeries in the Nigerian capital of Abuja shut down after the price of flour jumped about 200%.
It all means a slowing global economy. The International Monetary Fund dropped growth expectations this year and in 2022 that equates to about $1 trillion in lost production. Europe’s economy, for example, “is still experiencing significant headwinds” despite a drop in energy prices and is at risk of falling into recession, said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at banking giant Citi.
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