Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch's economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.
It’s been a rough time for the 60/40 model, a portfolio meant to protect investors from big downward swings.
Last year, according to data from JPMorgan Asset Management, the portfolio lost 16%, with the equities portion in the S&P 500 SPX and the bond market basket tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Return Index. The analysts had said at the end of 2021 that the portfolios were likely to have more frequent and larger drawdowns. “The key reasons for this were elevated valuations for both bonds and equities post the COVID-19 recovery but also high and rising inflation, which was a break from the previous regime characterized by low and anchored inflation,” said the Goldman team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann.
The Shiller price-to-equity ratio measures earnings from the last 10 years, adjusted for inflation, against stock-market prices. It’s designed to filter out the swings in profits during different business cycles.
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