Vivien Lou Chen is a Markets Reporter for MarketWatch. You can follow her on Twitter @vivienlouchen.
Global investors are just beginning to grasp the possibility that intensifying geopolitical risks may be here to stay, with the near-term risk of an oil shock rising as the U.S. beefs up its military presence in the Middle East.
Financial markets have largely taken Mideast developments in stride, with investors and traders mostly focused on the lack of any ground invasion by Israel so far and Monday’s release of two elderly hostages by the militant group Hamas. All three major U.S. stock indexes DJIA SPX COMP were higher in New York afternoon trading Tuesday, while 1- BX:TMUBMUSD01Y through 5-year Treasurys BX:TMUBMUSD05Y sold off — sending their corresponding yields higher.
“Mideast instability combines with Russian energy weaponization to impose high odds of a significant oil supply constraint on the global economic outlook in 2024,” Ibrahim wrote in a note released on Tuesday. “The Biden administration will seek ways to increase oil production but its options are limited. There is not yet a new US-Saudi strategic understanding, so Saudi Arabia will increase oil production too little, too late, if at all.
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