Natural Gas price edges higher during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's heavy losses, though the intraday uptick
lacks bullish conviction. The XNG/USD currently trades around the $2.9430 region, up over 0.50% for the day, and for now, seems to have stalled this week's retracement slide from the vicinity of a multi-month top touched in August.
From a technical perspective, the recent move-up witnessed over the past four months or so has been along an upward-sloping channel, which points to a well-established short-term uptrend. The subsequent breakout through and acceptance above the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average favours bullish traders.
That said, a bullish rejection near the $3.0620 level, ahead of the August swing high, warrants some caution before positioning for additional gains. The overnight trough, around the $2.9000 area, however, might now protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2.8850 region and the weekly low, around the $2.8520 zone. The latter coincides with the 200-day SMA, which if broken will expose the monthly trough, around the $2.7150 area.
Some follow-through selling below the latter will suggest that the recovery from the $2.1780 area, or a multi-year low touched in June has run its course and shift the near-term bias back in favour of bearish traders. On the flip side, any subsequent intraday move-up is likely to confront stiff resistance ahead of the $3.0000 psychological mark. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $3.0200 area, above which the XNG/USD could climb to challenge the $3.0620-$3.0650 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond should pave the way for a move towards testing the top boundary of the aforementioned trend-channel, currently pegged around the $3.2550 region.
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