Welcome back for another Friday breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.
All 30 teams are in action today, with only the Braves-Cubs game starting before 6:40 PM ET. Aaron Nola more than 6.5 Pitcher StrikeoutsHis 24.7% strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since his rookie season in 2015.With that said, his 3.85 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP both suggest he has been unlucky this season.
He should be able to work deep into this game due to the weak opponent, and I expect the positive strikeout regression to push him to more than 6.5 strikeouts in this matchup. Manoah has had a disastrous season that includes a demotion to the minor leagues.His numbers since his return from the minors have improved, but he is still struggling in a big way.
Three of the four hitters that have struck out at a higher rate hit from the left side of the plate. Bad news for Manoah since he has held a wide split in his strikeout rate throughout his career.Last season the split was even wider as he struck out just 19.0% of lefties . The combination of the Sox ability to get very left-handed, plus the great hitters park in Fenway, leave this as a very tough spot for a RHP who has struggled all season. James Paxton less than 6.
They also own an elite 10% walk rate versus lefties, which is one of the things that can get Paxton in trouble.
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