MLB predictions, picks, and odds for Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies on October 3. MLB Wild Card 2023 free pick and best bets.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to get back to the World Series after falling just short last season, while the Miami Marlins just squeaked in. With Philadelphia holding the pitching advantage, our MLB picks are siding with the home team.The last game on a busy first day of the MLB Postseason will take place in Pennsylvania where the Miami Marlins will try and continue to have success against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The big narrative here, though, is that Luzardo’s walks have skyrocketed to 9% in the last three months. That’s bad news when you consider the Phillies are a team that has walked 9.8% of the time in the second half and boasts some excellent power., who is a power pitcher with firmly above-average strikeout and walk numbers. The Marlins are just .223 with a .645 OPS against power pitchers this year and should go down rather easily here.
Then, I'm going with Luzardo to issue two walks. As I noted earlier, his walk rate is around 9% for the last three months and he’s walked at least two in four of his last five starts. He is really struggling to keep the ball in the zone, and the Phillies have been excellent at drawing walks since the All-Star break.One thing that I love here is Wheeler’s dominance in October. He owns a 2.
The Under is a wise play here if you don’t want to pay up for the Phillies. While Philadelphia's offense has been loaded with power, posting better than a .200 ISO in the second half, it possesses a rather tame 108 wRC+ against lefties this season with Rhys Hoskins missing. It’s not a bad mark, but it’s some semblance of hope that the above-average Luzardo can keep this game Under the total.
Over at DraftKings, 83% of the bets and 82% of the handle is on the Phillies, while 64% of the bets on the total have come in on the Over with 60% of the handle heading that way as well.The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the moneyline in 65 of their last 105 games . Find more: The lefty is wrapping up a complicated month of September which saw him allow six runs on 10 hits and four walks a few weeks ago — but also saw him close with a 10-strikeout display against the Mets.
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