Even in a best-case scenario, a Trump alternative's path to victory appears exceedingly narrow.
The GOP primary has officially entered the season of consolidation — a race within a race that will test the ego and rationality of every candidate committed to stoppingnew Iowa poll
by renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Trump is the first choice for 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers, giving him a commanding and stable lead over the rest of the field. DeSantis and Haley are tied for a distant second at 16% each, but support for Haley has surged 10 points since August — bolstering the narrative that she's the only non-Trump candidate with sustained momentum.
Haley has long pitched herself as the most electable candidate, and her growing coalition of suburbanites, college-educated voters, independents and other anti-Trumpers appears to support that case.Even if DeSantis drops out before Iowa — and every indication is that he won't — just 27% of his supporters named Haley as their second choice. An astonishing 41% said they would choose Trump.
In other words, the bloc of MAGA-adjacent voters that support DeSantis could boost Trump near the 50% mark in Iowa, cementing his dominance in the first-in-nation caucuses.Without consolidation, Trump appears very likely to romp to victory anyway — a Catch-22 that underscores the depth of the challenge facing anti-Trump Republicans."If Haley comes in a clear second in Iowa, DeSantis should absolutely drop out.
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