Bonds Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: USD/CNY, US Dollar Index Futures, United States 1-Month, United States 2-Year. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
While bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories. We have previously written much on the recent rise in bond yields related to economic growth, event risks, and recessions.“Since rates and expectations must adjust for the potential future impact on the current value of invested capital:
Bond investors have a fixed rate of return. Therefore, the fixed return rate is tied to forward expectations. Otherwise, capital is damaged due to inflation and lost opportunity costs.That chart is pretty cluttered, so the following chart is a composite index of inflation and economic growth compared to the 10-year Treasury yield.”Of course, that analysis contradicts the views of Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, and others who currently expect rates to go higher.
The most recent COT report currently shows a record number of short positions against Treasury bonds. That “selling” pressure has pushed prices lower and yields higher, as shown below. We saw a similar episode during theTreasury bond traders will be forced to cover those speculative positions.
These dollars, known as excess reserves, are invested primarily in U.S.-denominated investments ranging from bank deposits to U.S. Treasury securities and a wide range of other financial securities.This backdrop for the dollar is not changing anytime soon. According to the IMF, the dollar makes up almost 60% of global foreign exchange reserves.
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