Republicans only need to win six of the 31 toss-up House elections in order to win control of the lower chamber in November, according to a report from a top election analyst.
At least 212 House seats are likely to lean Republican, with about 192 seats leaning Democratic, according to new ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. That leaves about 31 toss-up seats in the midterm elections, with Republicans only needing to nab six of them to win House control.
Although many projections, including those from the Cook Political Report, show a reduction in the number of House seats Republicans are expected to win, the most recent ratings show the GOP need only make small gains to gain control of the chamber. The narrowed ratings deal a blow to predictions from earlier this year that Republicans would benefit from a red wave in November, as analysts have begun downgrading their forecasts for GOP gains in recent months. However, some experts have maintained the party is in good shape if it sticks to messaging on key voter issues.
Republicans may also have an advantage with President Joe Biden’s falling approval numbers in key areas, such as the economy, inflation, and gas prices. However, the president’s overall favorability reached an 11-month high earlier this week, with 45% of registered voters approving of his job performance, according to an NBC poll.
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