The US dollar has strengthened significantly against the euro, hitting a 6-week high, as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a hawkish stance in response to inflationary concerns and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The dollar's surge in March is attributed to heightened demand for a safe haven due to rising oil prices resulting from the closure of the Hormuz shipping lane. Meanwhile, there are indications that the upcoming easing in financial volatility in Europe and the UK may further support the dollar's rally.
［ニューヨーク １９日 ロイター］ - 終盤のニューヨーク外為市場では、ドルが対ユーロで６週間ぶりの高値を付けた。 エネルギー価格高騰に起因するインフレの抑制に向け、米連邦準備理事会（ＦＲＢ）がタカ派的な姿勢に転じる可能性に市場の関心が集まっている。
中東の和平合意を巡る不透明感も安全資産であるドルの買いにつながった。 イランがホルムズ海峡を事実上封鎖したことを受けて原油価格が上昇する中、ドルは３月、安全資産の需要の高まりから急騰した。 足元では、利回りの上昇にも支えられている。 スコシアバンクの為替ストラテジスト、エリック・テオレ氏は「ファンダメンタルズに立ち返っている。
つまり、インフレ動向とそれが債券市場に与える影響、そしてＦＲＢがどのように動くかだ」と指摘。 同時に、欧州と英国で金融引き締めのペースが緩やかになるとの見方が織り込まれていることもドルの押し上げ要因となっていると述べた。 フェデラルファンド（ＦＦ）金利先物市場は、１２月までにＦＲＢが約５０％の確率で利上げに踏み切るとの見方を織り込んでいる。 ただ、多くのアナリストは、米消費者物価指数（ＣＰＩ）のコア指数にインフレが表れ、インフレ期待が上振れしない限り、利上げの可能性は低いとみている。
円は対ドルで０．１３％安の１ドル＝１５９円と介入警戒水準付近で推移している。 内閣府が１９日発表した２０２６年１─３月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）速報値は、物価変動の影響を除いた実質（季節調整値）ベースで前期比０．５％増と２四半期連続のプラス成長となった。 予想を上回る伸びとなり、日銀が６月に利上げするとの見方を裏付ける内容となった。
US Dollar Euro Inflation Oil Prices Middle East Fed Safe Haven Financial Volatility Easing Erick Torell Inflation Expectations Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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